Home prices have continued to decline in Keizer, just like Salem. The question is whether or not I was accurate in my predictions from last year. I have an ego to maintain, you know. Last year I predicted a 5% decline in home prices and a flat line in home sales. So how did I fare?
Well like Salem I underestimated the decline a bit. The median shifted downward by 7.7, so I missed it by 2.7%. The average home price declined by 9.2% which isn’t surprising as fewer high end homes are selling to keep the average up. With smaller data figures like this, the median is a better way to look at the data. So off by a bit, but pretty close.
How did I do on home sales? Oh…so close. Check out this lovely graph. 2 more sales in 2011 over 2010. It doesn’t get much better than that for flat lining. Keizer home sales have been stalled at these levels for three years, and quite frankly it will probably be like this again in 2012.
So what do all my lovely charts mean to you? The good news is that banks are still having trouble foreclosing on MERS involved properties so the inventory is at 9.7 months which is decent for these economic times. This means not great conditions for sellers but better. Multiple offers are happening on occasion, not the norm by any means, but they are happening. Less competition is good for our regular sellers.
This stagnation for buyers means that sellers are still feeling the pain a bit and many have accepted current market conditions. Buyers are having better choices in the regular real estate market without having to delve into the distressed property market which means good things for buyer paid closing costs and needed repairs.
So my predictions for next year?. Honestly, the exact same thing. I think the market will continue to decline another 5% of so and home sales will remain flat lined. There just aren’t enough buyers that qualify for financing to have any kind of big pop in home buying.
Phew…my ego is still intact. I know you were all deeply worried about that part.
Data in these charts was crunched from data collected from the WVMLS for single family non-acreage properties.