Last month I talked about that the Salem Oregon real estate market appeared to be entering the skid phase. Unlike optimists who think some kind of v bounce will occur, I think a skid with essentially no appreciation in home values is more likely.
September marked the end of the 3rd quarter. The nice thing about using quarterly data is that we have more data to work with which gives us more accurate trending. So…the good news, you ask?
Homes sales were up 8.1% in the 3rd quarter this year over 2008. The median home priced dropped 6.3% for that same time frame. I think the median price might have dropped a bit more, but I think with the tax credit buyers seemed a bit more willing to compromise on price.
Now I still think things we be flat for at least through next year and maybe well into 2011 depending on what happens with our unemployment rate. Flat is good in this economy though.
Inventory for the Salem Oregon real estate market bumped up just a bit to 10.95 months. I think there are two reasons for this increase. With the uptick in sales, sellers started to go ahead and list thinking the market was improving and the other is the folks being hit by unemployment are trying to sell their homes before they head to foreclosure.
Of the homes that sold in the 3rd quarter 11.4% were distressed properties (ie short sales and foreclosures). The percentage creeps up slightly every month, but they are still a small portion of the Salem real estate market relatively speaking.
What happens to our local real estate market after the tax credit ends will give us an idea of how much the tax credit propped up the local real estate market.