Agents call it...we're near the end.

Obviously I am a real estate agent so what happens in the real estate market is important to me. I don’t like making long term predictions about our market since, well…lots of things can happen between now and then.

The Boston Herald reported the results of a survey conducted by Campbell Communications indicating that 52% of real estate agents surveyed felt that the housing market was going to hit bottom in Spring of 2009. 7.7% were eternal optimists that felt the market had already hit bottom, and 16.5% were pessimists that felt it would be 2010 or later.

I study my market fairly closely and post my data for you all to see. I firmly believe that buyers and sellers need to be able to make informed choices about their real estate transaction. Now, it is no secret that Salem and our outlying metro towns did not have the insane appreciation rates that the rest of the country had. We shouldn’t have to much farther to correct. I am not in the 52% of agents that feel that prices will bottom out for the market in spring. Fall of 2009, maybe…here’s why…

Our local Salem economy has 16,000 jobs that are tied to the state. With buyers and sellers arguing property tax rates, the economy in turmoil, and general retraction of spending by consumers we are going to see some economic fallout. The Oregon legislature is going to have to figure out what to do about a budget shortfall in the next legislative session. My concern for our local Salem real estate market is pretty simple…we don’t have a large portion of foreclosures due to lending, but I am concerned about foreclosures due to lost state jobs.

Where the rash of foreclosures across the nation was due to lax lending standards, I do have concern that we will see a new group of foreclosures due to job losses. We already have seen companies laying off individuals and closing shop. The ripple effect of job losses is huge.

So while 52% of my peers are calling it…spring 2009, I am not in that group. I encourage all homeowners to re-evaluate their finances and plan for those rainy days. Our economy is in trouble, and while I would love to help you sell your home, I would prefer that it is not under duress.

Agents call it…we’re near the end.